Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...

Worse, the models “hallucinate” — meaning, they invent. A study of AI tools used in the legal domain shows 58% to 82% ...

Polymarket rate cut forecasts show a 97% probability of a 25 bps interest rate reduction ahead of the Federal Reserve ...

After you read this, you’ll have a 32% chance at better understanding how bad you are at probability. If the risk of an event goes up or down, we assume that it will keep changing in that direction.

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

A simple mathematical model has helped chemists selectively synthesise a novel interwoven catenane structure. Researchers say models such as these may help improve chemists’ understanding of how to ...