The current bout of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads will become the third longest once 221 consecutive trading days exhibit a red spread. Despite considerable movement on the very short end ...

Here at The Indicator we've been on recession watch ever since the yield curve inverted at the end of last year. For the uninitiated, the yield curve shows different interest rates on government bonds ...

This week's simulation shows that inverted yields are a 93.4% probability through August 2023. Details below. Excel summaries of the simulation results for 3-month T-bills and the 10-year Treasury are ...