Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

Treasury yields have shifted, with the 2-year yield at 3.99% and the 10-year yield at 4.32%, widening the 2-year/10-year spread to 0.33%. The probability of an inverted yield curve peaks at 24.2% by ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

The yield curve shows the difference in the short- and long-term interest rates of bonds and other fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term ...

Later in this article, I will display a chart revealing a consistent pattern of when a recession is most likely to begin. From a trader's viewpoint, pattern recognition is essential for successful ...

Stocks made new record highs, with the S&P 500 setting an intraday high of 5,261.10 and a closing high of 5,241.53 on Thursday. For the week, the S&P increased 2.3% to close at 5,234.18. The index is ...

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...

The yield curve on U.S. government bonds has been upside down since the middle of 2022. The underlying circumstances of the yield curve's inversion, however, have changed dramatically in just the past ...

The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...